Worst drought in 100 years?
Darren E
in Environmental, Rainfall , Technical Comments
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2 Comments
I thought it was worth investigating the claim that SEQ is suffering it’s worst drought in 100 years.
The historical rainfall data is not available online, but I did find the following analysis by Warwick Hughes:
In terms of a 3 year moving-average of three key sites in the SEQ catchment, the current drought is no worse than 1993-94, 1977-80, 1918-19, or 1901-02. It’s only marginally worse than 1986-87.
Quote:
Making a 3 year drought map of the Brisbane River catchments for the period 1 August 2003 to 31 July 2006 (see below) we see that no areas are classified as “Lowest on Record”.
Quote:
on balance it would seem that to make claims about the “worst drought in 100 years” could be beyond what all the data could speak and looks like an attempt to divert attention from past water policy shortcomings.
It would appear that the problems in SEQ are purely driven by increased demand due to over-population and poor planning - not unprecedented climate conditions.
I’ve emailed to obtain a copy of the raw data, to extend the statistical analysis a bit and look at longer terms such as 5 year moving average, and will post further results when available.
Update:
Based on the Bureau of Meteorology “High Quality Monthly Rainfall Dataset”
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/change/HQmonthlyR
I performed a similar analysis to that quoted above from Warwick Hughes.
I also chose three monitoring stations, although a different three to Warwick Hughes - Beaudesert, Gatton and Harrisville - the three nearest to the Brisbane catchment within the HQ dataset, each with monthly rainfall data going back to at least 1899.
The different choice was based mainly on three factors:
- I didn’t have time to stuff around correcting data errors, which are mostly eliminated in the BOM HQ dataset (although there were 4 months of “no data” in the Beaudesert numbers which had to be fixed)
- The use of three different sites would help to widen and independently confirm Warwick’s initial analysis.
- The other three relevant sites in the HQ dataset did not extend back far enough in time to relate to Mr Beattie’s “worst drought in 100 years” scenario.
I’ve done some fairly detailed statistical analysis of the monthly rainfall data, which I won’t bore you with here. Although performed completely independently of Warwick Hughes’ analysis, and using data from different stations, my calculations show very similar results. His results (for Blackbutt, Esk and Kilcoy) are certainly more specific to the Wivenhoe catchment. Mine provide independent confirmation from three other sites.
Broad summary: Whether you look at yearly totals, 2 year averages, or 3, 5 or 10 year averages, SEQ is not in the “worst drought for 100 years”. Indeed, it is not in the worst drought for 20 years.
The current drought is not as severe as that experienced in the early to mid-1990s, or that of the 1920s.
The following chart shows locations for the referenced monitoring stations (note: I don’t have any fancy mapping software so I’ve just plotted latitude and longitude and thrown in some reference points).
The next four charts show “moving average” results for periods of 2, 3, 5, 10 years respectively. The 10 year period is the only one for which the current drought situation looks worse than the 1990s, thanks mainly to the heavy rains in 1992 and 1996. However, the current situation is still not as bad as experienced in the 1920s.
See also>> Reduction of topography induced rainfall in Brisbane
Opinion from: Ian Mott
Opinion from: Jim Galletly
Darren E
Thanks for the comments and the links Westholme and Arawajo. It is quite evident that we are seeing a very well orchastrated smokescreen here “it’s not that we didn’t plan well enough, or allowed population growth to exceed the available resources - it’s just the damned weather”.
If you say something loud enough and often enough, people will start to believe it. Team Beattie does have some skills after all (just a pity honesty and ethics aren’t amongst them). The “worst drought in 100 years” has already transcended from “bullshit sound bite” to “widely believed fact”.
SteveB sent me another relevent link, from
The Brisbane Institute
“The Science of Dams”
by Jim Galletly (QDA, BAgrSc, MAgrSc, FAIAST), who has extensive experience in ecology and engineering, and has worked as a soil conservationist and lectured in agronomy, and soil and water conservation engineering.
http://www.brisinst.org.au/resources/brisbane_institute_dams.html
It contains further expert analysis of scientific data which demonstrates again that this is not the worst drought in 100 years.
Quote:
We live in a scientific age, or at least we think we do. In the last essay ‘The long childhood’ of his beautiful book, The Ascent of Man, Jacob Bronowski wrote :’A scientific society is one in which specialists can indeed do the things like making the electric light work, but it is you, it is I, who have to know how nature works’.
And nowhere is this truer than in respect to hydrology which is an important component of ecology which must be understood if dam sites are to be chosen and managed wisely. But in Queensland, we have delegated hydrology and water management to a group of specialists who have had no training in ecology and who have made precious little contribution to the present discussion on the water crisis. I refer to the civil engineers employed by SunWater who insist that the present water crisis is due to the worst drought in a century.
A solution to the present water crisis relies on a correct diagnosis of the problem. This is not the longest ‘runoff-drought’ period in southeast Queensland. Such a period ran from 1911 to 1928 in some places; 1901to 1928 in others.
Quote:
It is noteworthy that in Washington State in America, one with excellent water supplies, it is the Department of Ecology which manages water, and its mission is ‘to protect, preserve and enhance Washington’s environment and promote the wise management of our air, land and water’. We could do well to follow their example.
SteveB contacted Jim, who provided a more detailed paper summarising his results. I will email Jim for permission to post his paper on this website, and also invite him to join the forum. Although Mr Galletly forwarded his findings to several politicians including the Premier, he says the only positive response he received was from Campbell Newman.
The Brisbane Institute received a response from SunWater which complained that Jim Galletly said they should analyse dam catchments to make sure they are capable of yielding runoff from small rainfall events. SunWater said that analysing dam catchments is not their responsibility.
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Reader Comments (2)
Wow – excellent work Darren. It is interesting to see the proof that Beattie is lying about the drought. I also went to this Weather Bureau site, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/australia_detail.shtml ,which explains that the rain comes and goes and we have good years and bad.
I guess Beattie has to blame the elements, (or God or any other diety you like – see http://encyclopedia.kids.net.au/page/li/List_of_deities for a list), for the government stuff up of allowing the population to explode without providing the necessities.
“Queensland's population grew by 296,400 persons in the five years from 1996 to 2001. This represented an average annual growth of 1.7%, the second fastest growth rate of all states and territories. Queensland's population is among the least centralised of the Australian states and territories, with 45% of the population living in Brisbane Statistical Division at 30 June 2001” http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/CF3424B58ECB69C8CA256CC500211FCA
RESIDENT POPULATION, QUEENSLAND
1901 -- 502,279
1921 -- 766,426
1941 -- 1,038,256
1961 -- 1,527,514
1981 -- 2,345,208
2001 -- 3,635,121
Source: Australian Historical Population Statistics (cat. no. 3105.0.65.001) data cube.
I dispute his assertions and his solutions on scientific grounds.
WHAT DROUGHT????????????
Drought conditions generally described when specific catchments not receiving its usual amount of rain bearing clouds, but in SE Queensland there are plenty of clouds that producing heavy rainfall over the ocean and in coastal areas causing flooding damage to SE Queensland coastal communities.
Unfortunately, these clouds produce little or no rainfall when they rolling over the Brisbane, Gold Coast and Toowoomba catchments, which are located along the eastern slops of the Great Dividing Ranges.
I am a Former Research Associate with Monash University School of Geography and Environmental Science and a consultant to Australian Management Consolidated Pty. Ltd.
We have identified the causes of SE Queensland water crisis and also we can offer economic and environmentally friendly solution to alleviate water shortages in Brisbane, Gold Coast and Toowoomba without hugely expensive and environmentally damaging recycling and desalination plants, and without building new dams in SE Queensland.
The Water crisis in southeast Queensland, in recent years, can be substantially attributed to the reduction of topography induced (orographic) rainfall in Brisbane, Toowoomba and Gold Coast catchments,
which affected run-offs from the eastern slops of the Great Dividing Ranges in SE Queensland and reducing inflows into the SE Queensland dams.
Our company and its consultant, Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld, Chair of Atmospheric Research at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, have since May 1999 been researching the reasons for rainfall reductions in southeastern Australia and our research has shown air pollution to be a major cause (Rosenfeld, Science 2000).
http://earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/Science_Smoke.pdf
Rosenfeld D., 2000: Suppression of Rain and Snow by Urban and Industrial Air Pollution. Science 287 (5459), 1793-1796.
Our findings published in the March 2000 edition of "Science" journal and entitled "Suppression of Rain and Snow by Urban and Industrial Air Pollution", clearly shows that clouds over the catchments along some areas of the Great Dividing Ranges are affected by urban and industrial air pollution originating in large urban and industrial developments and the power stations, that air pollution reduces the size of water droplets in clouds, suppressing coalescence of cloud droplets and inhibiting rainfall formation processes.
The physical evidence which we can produce indicates that air pollution affects precipitation in the south-eastern areas of Queensland by reducing the levels of orographic precipitation directly caused by air pollution emanating from Brisbane, Gold Coast and the power stations Swanbank A & B adjacent to Ipswich and Tarong, near Nanango, Kingaroy, 140km north-west of Brisbane.
New satellite tracking methods developed by Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld enables us to conduct detailed studies and measurements of cloud microphysics and to identify cloud composition on a case-by-case basis to
determine whether particular clouds in certain locations are affected by air pollution.
Our research is able to demonstrate that the effects of air pollution on clouds and the loss of rainfall can be observed by measuring clouds that should produce rainfall over the southeastern Queensland catchments, but are not precipitating over the eastern slops of the Great Dividing Ranges.
The water crisis in Brisbane, Toowoomba and Gold Coast can be substantially alleviated without resorting to the alternative and substantially more expensive and power hungry options of desalination
plants and with only limited usage of recycling water technologies for industry and agricultural purposes, and only if industry and agriculture prepare to pay the price between $1200 to 1500 per Megalitre. Big
question????????
Scientifically based cloud seeding can produce rainfall even in polluted clouds and this technology is already delivering measurable and significant results in more than 40 countries including Australia, USA, Israel, China and Thailand. The cost is about $50 per Megalitre and no environmental damage.
Big difference!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Building new dams in the catchments of southeast Queensland which is experiencing substantial reduction of rainfall and reduce river flow will only create new empty dams.
Don't we have enough empty dams in southeast Queensland????????
Our problem is that the Queensland Government refusing to consider our scientific findings and water solutions, and ignoring our letters and requests to meet.
I agree with Mr Beattie that he is not G'd, but we can make polluted SE Queensland clouds to produce rainfall in SE Queensland catchments and achieve run-offs into SE Queensland dams. Could it be the best solution for all residents of SE Queensland??????
But Mr Beattie prefer to build New dams, New desalination and New recycling plants, New pipelines and New pumping stations and New coal power stations to supply energy to New water infrastructure.
Regards
Aron Gingis
Australian Management Consolidated Pty. Ltd.
32 Vickery Street, Bentleigh, Victoria 3204
Phone: (03) 95028477, Mobile: 0419873182
Email: amc21@hotmail.com