11 Aug 2007 

Bob Katter says Peter Beattie has made Labor so unpopular in Queensland, he may have ruined Kevin Rudd’s chances of becoming PM. Arthur Gorrie asks: What if he’s doing it on purpose?

Confronted by the unfair­ness and apparent stupidity of life, many will tell you it’s either a stuff up or a conspiracy. And 90 per cent of the time it’s a stuff up.

While this may explain the odd conduct of or­dinary people from time to time, in politics conspi­racies happen all the time. A stuff-up is just what happens when your conspiracy fails, or someone else’s conspiracy wins out over yours.

Politicians will differ, of course, telling you it’s paranoid to believe in conspiracies. But they would say that wouldn’t they?

In considering the recent behaviour of the Queensland Premier, a man with a long expe­rience of successful conspiracies (or he wouldn’t have the job), it is interesting to look at how things are unfolding with regard to apparent political stuff ups like council mergers and the proposed Traveston Crossing dam.

Amalgamations have made Labor so unpopular across Queensland that, regardless of the sep­aration between State and Federal issues, people may well decide that punishing Kevin Rudd is the next best thing to punishing the untouchable Beattie, perhaps in the hope some sort of ALP discipline may just pull the Premier into line.

Bob Katter is not the only one to suspect that Beattie may have ruined Rudd’s chances of be­coming PM, by alienating the voters in Federal electorates that Rudd needs to win in Queensland.

The Australian-newspaper carried a front page article-on Thursday saying forced mergers could cost Rudd the election, an opinion apparently shared by Kevin Rudd, who has backed John Howard’s offer of Commonwealth electoral fund­ing for opinion polls on the issue in Queensland councils.

The paper reported that Opposition strategists believe seven marginal seats are at risk, quoting in support Labor candidates for Cairns-based Leichhardt, Central Queensland’s Flynn and, closer to home, the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax.

Columnist and academic Ross Fitzgerald says Labor’s chances are now dubious, because of forced council mergers.

On the darn, there is no doubt this particular festering sore has alienated thousands of one-time Labor voters here and on the Sunshine Coast forever.

Surely Beattie wouldn’t deliberately do some­thing so self-destructive for Labor. Surely it’s a stuff up, you may argue.

But while it is damaging for Labor, it may not be self-destructive for Beattie at all.

Some say he’s retiring anyway, so he doesn’t care. But what if it goes beyond that? What if Beattie sees himself as the next Labor PM? Or what if he just wants to keep that option open.

Or what if he just hates Kevin Rudd?

Looked at from the perspective of a Premier looking to go federal or seeking revenge for long ago disputes with Rudd, it suddenly starts to make sense.

Given a Beattie move to Canberra, a young talent like Rudd in the Lodge would keep Beattie out of the Ministry for years and the PM’s job forever.

A federally ambitious Beattie would need Rudd to lose.

There is probably no love lost between Beattie and Rudd, or Rudd’s master tactician Wayne Swan. 

Both were closely involved in the Goss Govern­ment, which excluded Beattie from the Ministry for years. One suspects they still don’t like each other very much.

As for Bligh, the last thing Beattie wants is a successor who succeeds, potentially putting his achievements in the shade.

Far better for Beattie’s historical image if Bligh is defeated some months after Beattie has gone, or at least suffers terribly.
“After me, the deluge” he may say, as he crafts an image as the Labor hero whose achievements could not be sustained by those who came after.

Then, given a John Howard retirement next term and an opponent like Peter Costello, Beattie may well see an opportunity to pack his bags for Canberra.

Of course it’s only a theory and so is probably not quite right.

But the man’s no dill. Surely he must be up to something.