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Labor set to back 'rat' in plum seat

Posted on Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 03:06PM by Registered Commenterstevem in , , | Comments17 Comments




Jamie Walker
March 05, 2009

THE Queensland election is poised to deliver another first for the ALP as the party steels itself to do the unthinkable and back a Labor “rat”.

The candidate in question is former Labor MP Ronan Lee, who walked out on the party to join the Greens and the ranks of turncoats who are despised with vehemence in the ALP.

With opinion polls showing the gap between Labor and the Liberal National Party narrowing, and Premier Anna Bligh making hard work of her bid to become the first female leader to win a state election, the ALP will have to put pragmatism above principle if it wants Green preferences by awarding Mr Lee its secondary vote in the plum Brisbane seat of Indooroopilly.

Queensland Greens veteran Drew Hutton, who is handling the party’s preference negotiations, yesterday said preferences for Mr Lee were a “deal breaker” with Labor.

The ALP would not get a single directed preference from the Greens otherwise.

Indooroopilly, in Brisbane’s leafy inner west, was a heartland seat for the conservatives until Mr Lee won it for Labor in 2001. With its margin of only 2.5 per cent, it is a must-win for the Liberal National Party to oust Ms Bligh’s heavily entrenched Government.

While the LNP’s man, Scott Emerson, is seen to be in the strongest position and Labor officials privately play down the prospects of their candidate, Sarah Warner, Mr Lee has a real chance of pulling off an upset if he gets Labor preferences.

This would be a bitter pill for the Queensland ALP, given its long and troubled history with “rats”, a term defined by the Penguin-Macquarie Dictionary of Australian Politics as applying to someone who quits a political party and “then forms or joins another party”.

Memories of the ALP split in Queensland in the late 1950s endure.

It happened after then premier Vince Gair broke with the ALP and set up the short-lived Queensland Labor Party, before re-ratting to join the DLP, which he represented in the Senate. Some true believers never forgave Gough Whitlam for appointing Mr Gair as Australia’s ambassador to Ireland in 1974 in an attempt to give Labor control of the Senate.

Brisbane’s Mal Colston became public enemy number one for Labor after he quit over the party’s refusal to support him for the role of vice-president of the Senate in 1997, allowing John Howard to privatise Telstra.

Passions were stirred ahead of the last state election in 2006 by colourful backbencher Cate Molloy, who resigned from the Queensland ALP in protest at the now-deferred Traveston Dam, north of Brisbane. The Liberals gleefully picked up the seat of Noosa.

Labor state secretary Anthony Chisolm declined yesterday to comment on preference negotiations with the Greens, nor the prospect of a deal that would reward Mr Lee. The usually talkative Mr Lee did not return The Australian’s calls.

Privately, Labor insiders said preferencing him would be a “minefield” for the party organisation, such was the stigma of the rodent tag. If the election was as tight as the polls indicated, however, Labor would need Green preferences to hang on to office.

Mr Emerson, a former journalist at The Australian, said: “A lot of Labor people will be scratching their heads.”

Ms Molloy, who is running again in Noosa as an Independent, wished Mr Lee luck.

“I am really proud that I did not rat on my community, and Ronan Lee should be really proud he did not rat on the environment,” she said.

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Reader Comments (17)

"It's not easy being GREEN....."
March 5, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterKermit the Frog
"If you lay down with dogs........you get fleas"
March 5, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterPete BT
I know there are many Green voters who read this forum and I don't mean to offend you by posting anything that you perceive as me trying to cast the Greens in a negative light due to their preference deals with Labour.
Please understand that whether you're going to vote Green, ALP, Ind or LNP, the fact is, that Green preference deals always help Labour into power. Every political commenter or speculator watches what the Greens are up to with their preferences.
And considering that if Labour gain power again then this Dam will proceed, well, any media about Green candidates helping this gov to get back in, is an issue worth discussing in an election where this dam is on the table.

Where Green preferences go is VERY important to: the eventual outcome of the election and; whether or not the dam will cease to exist at the end of March.
I can't 'not' post the latest news on Green preferences, because some people don't like to know about this preference aspect of elections.

As soon as I know which Ind or other minor parties are going to preference Labour I will post that as well. It is not personal, it is the news as it relates to the Traveston Crossing Dam.
P.S And I do not write it.
March 6, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwestholme
Hi Westholme,

as you know I share your disdain of the Watermelon Vote, but I've vowed to myself to try to steer away from politics as much as possible this time around.

So instead I just have a couple of observations:

1. Isn't it funny that Drew Hutton is speaking on behalf of every Greens branch in Qld regarding preference deals, when we were all told so definitively in 2006 that "each branch decides for itself".

2. Isn't it funny that a few weeks ago, Traveston Crossing Dam was the deal breaker, but now preferences for Ronan Lee are the deal breaker.

3. To be fair, the above article is about the possibility of Labor preferencing the Greens in Indooroopilly rather than the other way around. Labor knows that the LNP will win the primary vote in Indooroopilly. Second and third will be fought out between Labor and the Greens. Labor preferences only come into play if they lose and come third. Either way a "No Dam" candidate wins.

4. Ignore your TV for the next 2 weeks. There is an election on. Team Anna runs the show. It is like "Big Brother", without the honesty and intelligence.
March 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterDarren E
2006 election results for Indooroopilly

Ahead on primary vote:
(Total formal votes: 23,257)

TURNER, Peter LIB
9,868
42.43%

LEE, Ronan ALP
9,410
40.46%

PETROESCHEVSKY, Judy GRN
3,979
17.11%


Two candidate results after distribution of preferences, Indooroopilly:

LEE, Ronan ALP
11,684
52.43%
TURNER, Peter LIB
10,601
47.57%
Exhausted 972

My tip is that Labor will just reclaim the seat back from Ronan Lee in 2009.
March 6, 2009 | Registered Commenterstevem
In response to the question:
"What have you done and/or what are you planning to do, to stop the
Traveston Crossing Dam?

Anne Maddern replied:

As you are probably aware the LNP policy is that under an LNP Government there will not be a Traveston dam. I have sent out in the last two weeks approximately 10,000 letters, all of which have stated in bold letters that THERE WILL BE NO TRAVESTON CROSSING DAM. There is another flyer coming out which will be going statewide, approximately 15,000 to this Electorate, which will be sent out next week and it also has the same message. Every media conference that I do, there is a No Traveston Dam message. Unfortunately these very often don't get published (and often that which is published/televised contains at least some incorrect information!). I will continue (as will Ted Sorensen in Hervey Bay and the whole LNP team) a No Traveston Dam stance.
March 6, 2009 | Unregistered Commentertanzi
Maybe Anne could clarify, a post on another website my husband saw and then I researched, to find the same info. Lawrence Springborg quoted in the Australian on the 4 March,that "he promised to maintain Labor's existing infrastructure program" or is the Traveston Dam not part of Labor's infrastructure program? Or maybe if the LNP are elected then they will find a way to justify the building of the Traveston Dam. Like jobs, need for water etc. that they were unaware of before they got elected, I have seen it all before...........
March 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMulder
The LNP have said and it is stated in their 'Climate Proof' --- SEQ Water Policy ..........Environmentally sound strategy ....as well as other things .. Storm water harvesting ,tanks etc AND " Abandoning PLANS for Traveston Crossing Dam and it's dependent Northern Pipeline Interconnector , Stage 2 ."

Remember this Proposed Dam has not, as yet ,got State Development approval nor the required Federal Government approval and with the reluctance of the Co Ordinator General in sending the EIS to Canberra until he is happy with it, shows that problems exsist.
SO A NEW BROOM CAN SWEEP IT OUT THE DOOR..;............FINISH
March 6, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterbensoncooroy
That is my understanding of it as well bensoncooroy. The LNP has been very consistant with the dump Traveston policy.

http://www.springborg.com/policy/policy-page/climate-proof.html

Quote:
"The controversial Traveston Crossing Dam will be dumped"
March 6, 2009 | Registered Commenterstevem
I understood that Labor had conceded it couldn't win Indoooroopilly and that's my assessment too. If there is the anticipated swing away from Labor generally, it'd tend to put the LNP in a similar position or better, than last time. Ronan will get the previous Green vote and I would anticipate, a good proportion of the Labor vote too.

Which comes to Labor's dilemma over preferences.

If you accept that they won't win Indooropilly, then they would have to see it more in their interests to have Ronan get the seat as opposed to LNP which could turn out to be crucial to forming government.

In damage minimisation mode, they have to suggest to their Indooroopilly voters not to follow the Just Vote One line and to suggest preferences go to the Greens.

Given that such a move is in the interest of Labor, I can't see that the Greens need to concede much at all in order for it to become a reality.

Labor would be foolhardy in the extreme were they to take their Just Vote One approach into Indooroopilly this time around.
March 7, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterI Mackay
An interesting analysis Ian, especially if we have a hung parliament with Ronan Lee as the swinger and backing a Bligh government.

I agree Labor would be hard pressed to win with a just vote I, no preference swap, strategy, (ditto Ronan Lee) it would hand the seat to the LNP if the predicted 5% swing plays out. For Ronan Lee to win he would need to run a close second on primaries and recieve the greater bulk of the third placed Labor preferences.

On 2006 figures I cannot see that happenning, he will still run third. Green preferences will still mostly favour Labor and it will make it a very close finish. I can't see Ronan Lee polling anywhere near 40% of the primary vote to make him a contender. From being a possible gain for the LNP the door, with preference dealings, has opened for Labor.

I still reckon the odds favour Labor, it will be almost a 50/50 finish on distribution of preferences, with just a few stray votes deciding.

Preference deals look likely to be very crucial in this election, especially when the LNP requires around 52% of the primary vote to have any chance of winning the seats required.
March 7, 2009 | Registered Commenterstevem
Quote above story; Queensland election race narrows

Quote:
But even if the Greens Party advised its voters not to allocate preferences, it's uncertain whether it would be followed by voters who traditionally preference Labor.


This is what I was talking about the other day on that other forum thread. A Vote 1 strategy does not mean that Green voters still won't preference Labour. Sad for the Mary River, but true.

http://travestonswamp.info/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4404
March 7, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwestholme
Antony Green's analysis for candidate prospects in Indooroopilly - 2009:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/indo.htm

History/Trivia

"After surviving the 1998 swing, Beanland was defeated in the 2001 landslide, Labor's Ronan Lee causing an upset as he was elected as the first Labor MP for Indooroopilly. Expected to be a 'oncer', Lee hung on at the 2004 election and was again re-elected in 2006, having lost only 0.5% of his margin over two elections. Lee has adopted a different strategy to winning re-election in 2009, having resigned from the Labor Party and now seeking re-election as a representative of the Queensland Greens."

Assessment

It is hard to know which was most surprising, Labor's first victory in 2001, Ronan Lee's re-election in 2004, or the third victory in a row in 2006. All three results would be eclipsed on the 'surprise' scale if Ronan Lee was to be re-elected at the 2009 election for the Greens. The Liberal National Party should be favoured to regain Indooroopilly."

>>end quote<<

I wonder if his assessment was made before the Lab/Green preference nuptials?
March 7, 2009 | Registered Commenterstevem
That is my understanding of it as well bensoncooroy. The LNP has been very consistant with the dump Traveston policy.

http://www.springborg.com/policy/policy-page/climate-proof.html

Quote:
"The controversial Traveston Crossing Dam will be dumped"
March 9, 2009 | Registered Commenterstevem
Hi All
I appreciate what they have said in the past. I remember John Howard saying to us once there would never be a GST!!!! However, last Tuesday's statement overoad anything previous.
The statement has not been retracted, as far as the TCD is concerned and I have since checked it is clearly a Labor Infrastructure Program item.
What we need is for the LNP to specifically state NOW, that it will not now or ever build the TCD and what it proposes to do to help the effected Mary Valley and surrounding communities.
Mulder
March 9, 2009 | Unregistered Commentermulder
Sorry just couldn't resist the X Files conspiracy reference. Laughing

It’s actually David G member for Gympie.

OK reading your posts it seems the key issue here is trust.

The points made about infrastructure by others are correct. TCD is NOT an existing infrastructure project and indeed when you look at the Qld Budget papers you realise that NO funding has been committed to the construction just the acquisition of land.

The LNP has been very very veryclear on its opposition to the TCD.

This brings it back to the trust issue. Clearly I am not going to resolve your concerns by using logic because trust is often illogical.

So I can only say this. Over the past 2 ½ years as your MP, I have sat in too many homes, had too many people in my office and been in too many meetings where I seen the suffering first hand. I am writing this with tears in my eyes because each time I think of it I get angry and sad. Angry that any government could treat people in this way, and sad so much suffering has already occurred under this Labor government.

You have my word that if the LNP is privileged to form government after the 21st March there will be NO dam on the Mary River. Morally I could never let this happen after all I have seen.

Now if this is not enough then obviously we need to work on building that trust. Feel free to ring me on 5482 3651 or email me at gympie@parliament.qld.gov.au and I am happy to take time to sit down with you and explain the details.
_________________
David Gibson
"The most powerful force in the world is not a weapon or a nation but truth"
March 9, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterDavid Gibson
Here is the latest info I can find on preference deals

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2009/03/12/greens-preferences-revealed/

http://www.gympietimes.com.au/story/2009/03/11/lnps-dam-hypocrisy/

So, if if people follow their how-to-vote cards, it looks like the Greens may have handed a few seats to Labor, as have the LNP (for not preferencing Greens in the seats where Greens could have unseated a Labor member with LNP support).

Lets get over it, and have our tree clearing uranium mining watermelon slicing debate after the election. All major players in this election other than the Labor party are still strongly opposed to the Traveston Dam proposal. A marginal seats campaign based on just VOTE 1 NO DAM is more important than ever to undermine the Labor/Green preference advantage in those seats and should be pursued with even greater vigour. Every Green voter in those seats should know that if they follow the Greens how-to-vote card that they are placing a vote directly for the construction of the Traveston Crossing Dam.
So - don't follow the card, just vote 1.

Lets just get on with it.
March 12, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSteve B

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